Bitcoin Price vs All-Time High
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BearishBitcoin trades -36.7% from its all-time high of $126,080. Neither leg is met: the band needs $100,864, and the recovery leg needs $87,849 (50% above the 52-week low of $58,566). This signal is bearish.
What does distance from the all-time high mean?
The all-time high (ATH) is simply the highest price Bitcoin has ever traded. Distance from ATH, sometimes called drawdown, measures how far below that peak the current price sits, expressed as a percentage. At 0% the market is setting new records; at -50% it has halved from the top.
This number is a fast, intuitive read on where the market is in its cycle. Bitcoin has historically spent long stretches 60% to 85% below its high during bear markets, then extended periods within striking distance of the top during bulls.
The tracker computes it live from CoinGecko data: current price against the highest recorded price, updated hourly.
Why it matters for the bull market
A market trading within 20% of its all-time high is either in price discovery (setting new highs, where every holder is in profit and there is no overhead resistance) or close enough to reclaim it quickly. Both states are characteristic of bull markets. Deep drawdowns, by contrast, take months or years of accumulation to repair.
That test is good at one thing and bad at another. It answers "has the bull ended", because bull markets routinely include 10% to 20% pullbacks without ending. It cannot answer "has a bull begun", because the start of a bull market is by definition a long way below the last peak. Through 2023 Bitcoin rose from roughly $16,000 to $42,000, more than 150%, and a 20%-band rule anchored on the $69,000 high would have voted bearish for the entire run.
So the signal has a second leg: bullish also when price sits at least 50% above its 52-week low. That is above the range where bear-market rallies usually die (2022 produced several bounces of more than 30% that failed), and it fired in March 2023, roughly when the last bull is generally reckoned to have started.
The honest cost: a genuine 50% bear-market rally will trigger the second leg early. That is a real weakness, accepted because the alternative failure, staying bearish through an entire year of a bull market, is worse. It is also one vote in fifteen, so being early cannot carry the verdict alone.
The rule
Bullish when the Bitcoin price is within 20% of its all-time high, OR at least 50% above its 52-week low. Either leg is enough.Frequently asked questions
What does percent from ATH mean?
How far the current price is below the highest price ever recorded, as a percentage. A reading of -10% means the price must rise about 11% to set a new record. The live figure is shown at the top of this page.
Why does the tracker use a 20% band?
Bull markets regularly pull back 10% to 20% without ending, so a stricter rule would flip bearish during routine corrections. That band is the first of two legs, and on its own it only answers whether a bull has ended.
Why is there a second leg at 50% above the 52-week low?
Because a band anchored on the all-time high cannot detect a bull market starting. In 2023 Bitcoin rose more than 150% off its low while still 66% below the previous high, and a 20%-band rule would have called that bearish all year. Fifty percent off the low sits above the range where bear rallies usually fail.
Could the second leg fire during a bear market rally?
Yes, and that is its known weakness. A rally of more than 50% off the low would trigger it early. That is accepted because the opposite failure, voting bearish through a whole year of a real bull market, is worse, and because this is one vote among fifteen.
Why the 52-week low rather than the cycle low?
They are usually the same number, and the 52-week low is always computable. Measuring from the cycle top stops working once the top is more than a year old. The trailing low also rises as a new cycle advances, so the second leg turns off in a new bear rather than staying stuck on.
What is price discovery?
Trading above every previous price. There is no overhead supply from buyers waiting to break even, which is one reason moves above the old high can accelerate.
Does a new all-time high confirm a bull market?
It is one of the strongest single confirmations, but this tracker still requires a majority of its 15 signals to agree. A lone spike to a marginal new high with weak flows, sentiment and on-chain activity would not flip the verdict by itself.