Bitcoin Price vs All-Time High
Live reading
BearishBitcoin trades -34.6% from its all-time high of $126,080. Neither leg is met: the band needs $100,864, and the recovery leg needs $87,849 (50% above the 12-month low of $58,566). This signal is bearish.
What does distance from the all-time high mean?
The all-time high (ATH) is simply the highest price Bitcoin has ever traded. Distance from ATH, sometimes called drawdown, measures how far below that peak the current price sits, expressed as a percentage. At 0% the market is setting new records; at -50% it has halved from the top.
This number is a fast, intuitive read on where the market is in its cycle. Bitcoin has historically spent long stretches 60% to 85% below its high during bear markets, then extended periods within striking distance of the top during bulls.
The tracker computes it live from CoinGecko data: current price against the highest recorded price, updated hourly.
Why it matters for the bull market
A market trading within 20% of its all-time high is either in price discovery (setting new highs, where every holder is in profit and there is no overhead resistance) or close enough to reclaim it quickly. Both states are characteristic of bull markets. Deep drawdowns, by contrast, take months or years of accumulation to repair.
That test is good at one thing and bad at another. It answers "has the bull ended", because bull markets routinely include 10% to 20% pullbacks without ending. It cannot answer "has a bull begun", because the start of a bull market is by definition a long way below the last peak. Through 2023 Bitcoin rose from roughly $16,000 to $42,000, more than 150%, and a 20%-band rule anchored on the $69,000 high would have voted bearish for the entire run.
So the signal has a second leg: bullish also when price sits at least 50% above its lowest close since the all-time high. That is above the range where bear-market rallies usually die (2022 produced several bounces of more than 30% that failed), and it fired in early 2023, roughly when the last bull is generally reckoned to have started.
The low is measured from the top on purpose. The first version of this leg used the 52-week low, which goes stale after a sharp peak: through 2018 the trailing year still held 2017 prices, so the leg read bullish on 218 of 288 days between March and December 2018 while Bitcoin fell towards $3,200. Starting from the all-time high removes that stale low. Once the high is more than a year old, the low comes from the last 12 months instead, the furthest back the free price data reaches.
The honest cost: a genuine 50% bear-market rally will trigger the second leg early. That is a real weakness, accepted because the alternative failure, staying bearish through an entire year of a bull market, is worse. It is also one vote in thirteen, so being early cannot carry the verdict alone.
The rule
Bullish when the Bitcoin price is within 20% of its all-time high, OR at least 50% above its lowest close since that high (over the last year, once the high is more than a year old). Either leg is enough.Frequently asked questions
What does percent from ATH mean?
How far the current price is below the highest price ever recorded, as a percentage. A reading of -10% means the price must rise about 11% to set a new record. The live figure is shown at the top of this page.
Why does the tracker use a 20% band?
Bull markets regularly pull back 10% to 20% without ending, so a stricter rule would flip bearish during routine corrections. That band is the first of two legs, and on its own it only answers whether a bull has ended.
Why is there a second leg at 50% above the low?
Because a band anchored on the all-time high cannot detect a bull market starting. In 2023 Bitcoin rose more than 150% off its low while still 66% below the previous high, and a 20%-band rule would have called that bearish all year. Fifty percent off the low sits above the range where bear rallies usually fail.
Could the second leg fire during a bear market rally?
Yes, and that is its known weakness. A rally of more than 50% off the low would trigger it early. That is accepted because the opposite failure, voting bearish through a whole year of a real bull market, is worse, and because this is one vote among thirteen.
Why measure from the low since the top?
Because a low from before the top says nothing about the current decline. The first version used the 52-week low, and after the 2017 peak that low still sat at 2017 prices, so the leg read bullish on 218 of 288 days of the 2018 bear. Starting from the all-time high fixes that. Once the high is more than a year old, the low comes from the last 12 months instead.
What is price discovery?
Trading above every previous price. There is no overhead supply from buyers waiting to break even, which is one reason moves above the old high can accelerate.
Does a new all-time high confirm a bull market?
It is one of the strongest single confirmations, but the verdict still needs a clear lead across its 13 signals. A lone spike to a marginal new high with weak flows, sentiment and on-chain activity would not flip it by itself.