Is it a bull market yet?
YES.
We are so back.
Signal consensus · 60% bullish9/15
signals bullish
Nine of fifteen indicators currently support a bull market.
Updated 16:40 UTC · refreshes hourly
Price and trend signals
Bitcoin price
Bearish$80,468
-36.2% vs ATH · high $126,080
52w low $58,566ATH
Bullish above $87,849 (50% over the 52-week low).
BTC 200-Day Trend
Bullish+12.8%
Price change vs 200 days ago
Long-term uptrend intact
Moving average and sentiment signals
200-Day Moving Avg
Bullish+16.4%
Price vs 200-day average
Price$80,468
200-day MA$69,156
Above the 200-day line
Sentiment Trend
Bullish70
7-day F&G avg · +39 pts vs prior 23d
Sentiment improving
Market breadth and retail attention signals
Altcoin market
Bearish$1.11T
+0.43% today
BTC dominance59.2%
Alt seasonBTC dominant
Google Trends
Bearish47
“Bitcoin” 14-day avg · /100
Baseline: 55Decelerating
Institutional and stablecoin flow signals
ETF Prior-Weeks Flow
Bullish+$1.42B
Net flow, the ~23 days before this week
Sustained accumulation
Stablecoin Supply
Bullish+0.2%
30-day supply change
USDT + USDC$257.3B
30d change+$626M
Leverage and on-chain signals
Funding Rate
Bearish+8.7%
Annualized · ~7-day avg
Latest period0.0042% / 8h
Below neutral baseline (~+11%)
Miner Revenue
Bullish$34.6M
7-day avg daily · prev: $31.2M
Miners earning more
Active Addresses
Bearish476K
7-day avg daily · prev: 498K
Activity declining
What would have to happen
2 more signals to flip the verdict to NOFour signals read the Bitcoin price, so they share one ladder. Bitcoin is at $80,468.
The other 6 signals, and what each needs
These measure different things, so they are listed rather than ranked. There is no honest way to say which is easiest.
Fear & Greed levelNeeds fall 21 points to cross 50 (now 71).
Fear & Greed trendNeeds 7-day average to move 39 points the other way (now +39.0 vs prior 23d).
ETF flows, last 7 daysNeeds $1.80B of net outflow.
ETF flows, prior ~23 daysNeeds $1.42B of net outflow.That window has already closed, so it can only change as it rolls forward.
Stablecoin supplyNeeds $626M of net redemption over 30 days.
Miner revenueNeeds $3M a day less.
Every figure here is the published threshold minus the live value. It says what would have to be true, not when or how likely.
Additional Context
Halving cycle
Context~595
days until next halving
863 days since the last · block #964,316
Last halving4-year cycleNext
Days since cycle top
Context325
days since $126,080 on 6 Oct 2025
In months10.7
A calendar, not a measurement. Past bear phases ran roughly 12 to 14 months top to bottom, on a sample of three.
Realized Price
Context1.53
MVRV · +53% vs realized price
Market price$80,468
Realized price$52,557
Price above network cost basis. A drop below it has marked every cycle bottom.
Pump.fun Activity
Context+63.2%
30-day fees vs prior 30 days
Last 30 days$42.7M
Prior 30 days$26.2M
New-coin trading rising
Bonding-curve and graduation fees, so this covers coins before they graduate. Rising or cooling needs a move of more than 5%.
PumpSwap Volume
Context+5.1%
30-day volume vs prior 30 days
Last 30 days$18.1B
Prior 30 days$17.3B
Graduated-coin trading rising
Where coins trade after graduating, so this covers the survivors rather than the new arrivals.
Total DeFi TVL
Context+13.6%
Value locked vs 30 days ago
Now$87.3B
30 days ago$76.8B
Capital flowing in
Every chain DefiLlama tracks. A stock, not a flow, so no double-counting of routed trades.
Hash ribbon
Context-1.4%
30-day hash rate vs 60-day
30-day average903 EH/s
60-day average915 EH/s
Miners capitulating
What miners do, rather than what they earn. Shown as context and never counted.