How the verdict works
The tracker answers one question (is it a bull market yet?) with a strict, mechanical rule applied to live market data. No opinions, no discretion, no vibes (well, measured vibes).
The rule
15 signals are each scored bullish or bearish against a fixed threshold. If a strict majority (more than half of the signals that returned data) are bullish, the verdict is YES. Otherwise: not yet.
Right now that reads 9 of 15 bullish, so the verdict is YES. A tie is not a bull market. If a data source is down, its signal is excluded and the majority is computed over the signals that remain. An outage never counts as a bearish vote.
The 15 counted signals
They deliberately span five independent categories (price trend, sentiment, institutional flows, retail attention, and on-chain activity) so no single kind of market action can flip the verdict alone.
| Signal | Bullish when | Source |
|---|---|---|
| BTC vs All-Time High | Price within 20% of the ATH, or at least 50% above the 52-week low (either leg) | CoinGecko |
| BTC 30-Day Momentum | 30-day price change positive | CoinGecko |
| BTC 200-Day Momentum | 200-day price change positive | CoinGecko |
| BTC vs 200-Day Moving Average | Price above the 200-day MA | CoinGecko |
| Fear & Greed Index | Score above 50 | Alternative.me |
| Fear & Greed Trend | 7-day average rising vs prior 23 days | Alternative.me |
| Altcoin Market | BTC dominance below 55% and the market higher than 30 days ago | CoinGecko |
| ETF Flows (last 7 days) | Net inflows positive over the last 7 days | SoSoValue |
| ETF Flows (prior ~23 days) | Net inflows positive over the ~23 days before the last 7 (independent windows) | SoSoValue |
| Coinbase App Store Rank | Top 10 in US Finance free apps | Apple RSS |
| Stablecoin Supply Growth | USDT + USDC supply rising over 30 days | DefiLlama |
| Google Trends | Last 14 days of "Bitcoin" search interest above the preceding ~10-week baseline | SerpAPI |
| Miner Revenue | 7-day average daily revenue rising | Blockchain.com |
| Active Addresses | 7-day average active addresses rising | Blockchain.com |
| Perpetual Funding Rate | ~7-day average funding above the +0.01%/8h neutral baseline (~+11% annualized) | OKX / Bybit |
A note on correlation, before anyone counts: these are not 15 fully independent measurements. Four of the votes read the Bitcoin price series over different horizons, miner revenue largely co-moves with price, the two ETF votes read the same flow series, Fear & Greed is counted at two speeds, and search trends feed into Fear & Greed itself. That structure is deliberate. Price regime is weighted heavily because price regime is most of what “bull market” means, and the remaining votes (flows, stablecoins, funding, dominance, app rank, on-chain activity) exist precisely so a price squiggle alone cannot flip the verdict. Group them yourself and it is roughly ten independent inputs; the verdict needs breadth across them, not unanimity within any one.
Context indicators (shown, not counted)
Seven indicators appear on the dashboard but never vote. The halving cycle is a calendar, not a measurement; it would stay “bullish” through a crash. MVRV sits above 1 the vast majority of the time, in bear markets too, so it would be a permanently bullish vote; its value is at the extremes, where a drop below 1 has marked every major cycle bottom. Pump.fun activity is the newest of the three and the most tempting to count, because Solana memecoin speculation is a vivid read on risk appetite. It stays out for two reasons: the platform has only existed since 2024, so a threshold would rest on a single cycle, and it covers one venue on one chain while the counted signals are Bitcoin or market-wide. PumpSwap volume is the same venue after tokens graduate, and carries the same caveats. Total DeFi TVL is excluded for a different reason: it is priced in dollars, so it falls when prices fall, and counting it would quietly weight price more heavily than the fifteen-signal split claims.
| Signal | Bullish when | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Halving Cycle | Calendar position in the ~4-year cycle; never reacts to the market | mempool.space |
| Realized Price / MVRV | Above 1 almost always; only extremes are informative | bitcoin-data.com |
| Pump.fun Activity | Rising or cooling on a 30-day fee change of more than 5%; bonding-curve trading, so pre-graduation; one venue on one chain, and only one cycle of history to judge it by | DefiLlama |
| PumpSwap Volume | Same 5% rule on trading volume after coins graduate; the most speculative corner of the market, not the market | DefiLlama |
| Days Since Cycle Top | Elapsed days since the all-time high; a calendar, so it never reacts to the market | CoinGecko |
| Hash Ribbon | 30-day hash rate below the 60-day; crossed 11 times in the last 298 days, so it whipsaws, and hash rate also moves for non-market reasons | Blockchain.com |
| Total DeFi TVL | Same 5% rule on value locked; priced in dollars, so it moves with token prices and would partly restate the price signals | DefiLlama |
Data & freshness
Every signal is fetched server-side from public APIs and cached for roughly an hour (some slower-moving on-chain series longer). The page you see is prerendered with the latest data and refreshes itself automatically. All sources are attributed on each card and on the signal explainer pages.
What this is not
Not financial advice, not a trading system, and not a prediction. The thresholds are reasonable but ultimately judgment calls, the majority rule is deliberately simple, and no backtesting is claimed. It is an honest, transparent aggregation of the indicators people actually argue about, built so you can check the state of the market in one glance and dig into any signal you disagree with.