Bitcoin 200-Day Momentum
Bitcoin is down -28.7% versus 200 days ago, so the long-horizon regime still reads down and this signal is bearish.
What is 200-day momentum?
This signal compares the Bitcoin price today with its price exactly 200 days ago, roughly six and a half months. Positive means the market has gained ground over that horizon; negative means it has lost ground.
It is a two-point comparison, which makes it different from the 200-day moving average tracked separately on this site. The moving average smooths the entire 200-day path into a line; momentum only asks whether the end is above the start. The two usually agree, but they diverge at turning points, which is when having both is informative.
The figure comes from CoinGecko’s 200-day price change and refreshes hourly.
Why it matters for the bull market
Over a 200-day horizon, noise washes out and regime remains. Almost all of Bitcoin’s bull-market gains have come during periods when this reading was positive, and the deepest bear phases kept it negative for months at a stretch. It is a slow signal by design: it certifies a trend rather than predicting one.
Its lag is the honest price of its reliability. Six months into a new bull market this signal may still be negative, and it stays green for a while after tops. The tracker counts it alongside fast signals precisely so slow conviction and quick reaction can be weighed together in the same verdict.
Frequently asked questions
What does positive 200-day momentum indicate?
That Bitcoin has gained value over roughly the last six and a half months. Sustained positive readings have historically aligned with bull market regimes rather than bear market rallies.
How is this different from the 200-day moving average signal?
Momentum compares two prices: today versus 200 days ago. The moving average compares today’s price with the average of all 200 days. Momentum reacts faster to a strong recent run; the average is harder to flip and better at filtering whipsaw.
Why is such a slow signal useful at all?
Because it is rarely wrong about regime. Fast signals flip often; this one flipping is an event. In a majority-vote system, one high-conviction slow vote balances several fast ones.
Can the market rally while this signal is bearish?
Yes, and early bull markets usually do exactly that. The 30-day momentum signal is counted alongside it to catch those early turns while this one confirms later.