Bitcoin Realized Price & MVRV
MVRV is 1.19: price sits +18.9% above the network cost basis of $52,571. The average holder is in profit; no capitulation condition.
What are realized price and MVRV?
Realized price is Bitcoin’s on-chain cost basis: instead of valuing every coin at today’s price, it values each coin at the price it last moved on-chain, then divides by supply. The result is the average acquisition price of the entire network, what holders collectively paid for their Bitcoin.
MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) is simply the market price divided by the realized price. MVRV of 1.5 means the average holder is sitting on 50% unrealized profit; MVRV below 1 means the average holder is underwater.
These metrics come from Bitcoin’s public ledger itself, no surveys and no exchange data, which is why on-chain analysts treat realized price as one of the most fundamental valuation anchors that exists for Bitcoin.
Why it matters for the bull market
MVRV is shown on this tracker as context rather than a counted signal, for an honest reason: it is above 1 the vast majority of the time, through bear markets as well as bull markets, so an "MVRV above 1" rule would be a nearly always-on vote that tells you little about the current regime.
Where it earns its place is at the extremes. Price falling below realized price (MVRV under 1) means the average holder is at a loss, historically the signature of full capitulation. It happened at the 2015 bottom, the December 2018 bottom, the COVID crash of March 2020, and the late-2022 bottom. Each time, it marked the zone where sellers were exhausted and the next cycle eventually began. At the other extreme, MVRV readings above roughly 3.5 coincided with earlier cycle tops, though each cycle’s peak has been lower than the last (the most recent top came in below 3). This page exists so you can see where in that range the market currently sits.
Frequently asked questions
What is Bitcoin’s realized price?
The average price at which every Bitcoin last moved on-chain, effectively the network’s aggregate cost basis. It is computed from the blockchain itself by valuing each coin at its last on-chain transfer price.
What does MVRV below 1 mean?
The market price is below the network’s average cost basis, so the average holder is at an unrealized loss. Historically this has only happened during capitulation phases, and every major cycle bottom (2015, 2018, March 2020, 2022) occurred in that zone.
Is a high MVRV a sell signal?
Extremely high readings (above roughly 3.5 to 4) have historically appeared near cycle tops, but the level varies by cycle and is drifting lower as the market matures. It is best read as a temperature gauge, not a trigger.
Why is this not counted in the verdict?
Because MVRV is above 1 most of the time, in bear markets too, it would be a permanently bullish vote. It is a bottom-caller, valuable at extremes, so this tracker shows it as context beside the counted signals.