Bitcoin Realized Price & MVRV
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BullishRealized price was $53,436 on 12 October, up 2.2% on its level 60 days earlier ($52,271). On balance coins are changing hands for more than they last moved at, so this signal is bullish. MVRV, todayâs price over that cost basis, is 1.54.
What are realized price and MVRV?
Realized price is Bitcoinâs on-chain cost basis: instead of valuing every coin at todayâs price, it values each coin at the price it last moved on-chain, then divides by supply. The result is the average acquisition price of the entire network, what holders collectively paid for their Bitcoin.
MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) is simply the market price divided by the realized price. MVRV of 1.5 means the average holder is sitting on 50% unrealized profit; MVRV below 1 means the average holder is underwater.
Realized price only changes when coins move. It rises when coins change hands for more than they last moved at, and falls when they change hands for less. Its direction is a running tally of whether the network as a whole is realising profits or losses, read from Bitcoinâs public ledger rather than from surveys or exchange data.
The tracker reads realized price from bitcoin-data.com and compares the latest reading with the one from 60 days earlier. The free feed runs about a week behind, because the newest seven days are reserved for subscribers, so the reading is always roughly a week old.
Why it matters for the bull market
The textbook rule, price above realized price (MVRV above 1), is not the one this tracker uses, because it almost never says no. From September 2022 to September 2026, MVRV sat above 1 on 92% of days, and on every single day from September 2025 to September 2026. That includes the June 2026 low of about $58,600, more than 50% below the October 2025 high. A vote that stays bullish while the price halves is not measuring a bull market.
The direction of realized price is more informative. Over the same four years the 60-day comparison was bullish on 72% of days: bearish through the late-2022 bottom, bullish without a break from October 2023 through the 2024 and 2025 run, and bearish for most of the following eight months after turning on 23 January 2026.
Sixty days, rather than the 30 used elsewhere on this site, is a measured choice. A 30-day comparison flipped about seven times a year, with a median run of 10 days. Sixty days flipped about three times a year, with a median run of 43. Realized price moves slowly enough that a short window mostly measures noise.
It has three known weaknesses. It is slow at tops: after the October 2025 high it stayed bullish until 23 January 2026, about three and a half months later. It can chatter at the line, as it did when it flipped three times between 31 August and 2 September 2026. And it is not independent of price, because coins realise more profit when prices are high. Between April 2023 and September 2026 it agreed with the 200-day momentum vote on 86% of days, about as often as the two 200-day price votes agree with each other, which is why the methodology treats it as partly a price vote.
MVRV still earns its place beside the vote. Price below realized price (MVRV under 1) has marked full capitulation: the 2015 bottom, December 2018, the COVID crash of March 2020, and the late-2022 bottom. At the other extreme, readings above roughly 3.5 coincided with earlier cycle tops, though each cycleâs peak has been lower than the last (the most recent top came in below 3).
The rule
Bullish when Bitcoinâs realized price is higher than it was 60 days earlier.Frequently asked questions
What is Bitcoinâs realized price?
The average price at which every Bitcoin last moved on-chain, effectively the networkâs aggregate cost basis. It is computed from the blockchain itself by valuing each coin at its last on-chain transfer price.
Why does the vote not use MVRV above 1?
Because it almost never says no. MVRV was above 1 on 92% of days from September 2022 to September 2026, and on every day from September 2025 to September 2026, through a fall of more than half from the October 2025 high. The 60-day direction of realized price turned bearish during that same fall.
Why compare against 60 days earlier?
A 30-day comparison flipped about seven times a year with a median run of 10 days, which is mostly noise for a series this slow. Sixty days flipped about three times a year with a median run of 43 days.
Why is the data about a week old?
bitcoin-data.com reserves the newest seven days for paying subscribers, and the tracker uses the free feed, so every flip shows up here about a week late. If the feed stalls and its newest reading passes 14 days old, the signal is excluded from the count rather than voting on stale data.
What does MVRV below 1 mean?
The market price is below the networkâs average cost basis, so the average holder is at an unrealized loss. Historically this has only happened during capitulation phases, and every major cycle bottom (2015, 2018, March 2020, 2022) occurred in that zone.
Is a high MVRV a sell signal?
Extremely high readings (above roughly 3.5 to 4) have historically appeared near cycle tops, but the level varies by cycle and is drifting lower as the market matures. It is best read as a temperature gauge, not a trigger.